Hiv/Aids is a disease that has risen in note rareness over the past three decennaries, it has ravaged human-beings in the most unsavoury manner but we as buddying economic experts do non cognize how much of a job it is to our macroeconomy.The range of this survey is sing the impact of Hiv/Aids on economic growing in Botswana and Thailand. Concentrating on authorities policies, economic and wellness indexs.

Research aims

To compare two states being Botswana and Thailand who have been deemed as success narratives when it came to their Hiv/Aids policies.

To see if the success of their policies has translated into economic success or non

To see if hiv/aids has a important consequence on the macro economic system

To hold a standard theoretical account to prove the effects of hiv/aids on economic growing

Table of contents

Introduction

1.2Justification of Survey

1.2.1Research Hypothesis

1.2.2Definition of footings

2.1 Literature reappraisal

3.1Methodology

3.1.2 Introduction

3.2.1 Theoretical model

3.2.2 Hypothesis development

3.3.1 Variables Specification

3.3.2Model Specification

3.4.1 Data Collection

3.4.2Methods of Analysis

3.5.1 Decision

4.1 Mention

1.1 Introduction

Over the past 29years Hiv/Aids ( Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome ) has penetrated all geographic and societal boundary lines to go an epidemic of note, that has en gulfed the universe in decease and agony from the unborn, to immature, to the old. In the past 20years it has become synonymous with largely sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Where it has put authoritiess at ransom in infecting its most productive people and authoritiess have seen that they have to do the attempt to control Hiv/Aids and its damaging effects on its people, which cost money, about US $ 13.7billion globally in 2008.

The macroeconomic effects of Hiv/aids are non cut and dry as most people think.Even though wellness effects are surely seeable and are 100 % fatal. The epidemic ‘s consequence on Macro economic system should be brought to visible radiation, for illustration states with populations where the epidemic is concentrated the state ‘s economic growing diminutions and it becomes a Domino consequence from industry to families, as more septic people become less productive. The Domino consequence might do GDP growing to worsen, unemployment and GDP per capita to increase or diminish, but old economic surveies show that the macroeconomic deductions of Hiv/Aids showed that GDP per capita was likely traveling to increase. Harmonizing to Jefferies, Kinghorn, Siphambe and Thurlow ( 2008 ) more recent patterning concludes that indirect macroeconomic impacts may significantly decline the already terrible direct economic impacts felt by the septic population, while besides cut downing incomes among the clean. In such instances, macroeconomic impacts would farther convey to illume the demand to extenuate the effects of HIV/AIDS.

Therefore, authorities policy on Hiv/aids plays a major function in the result of controling the epidemic from plans like Botswana ‘s successful PMTCT ( Prevention of Mother To Child Transmission ) plan to Thailand bring forthing its ain generic ARV ( Antiretroviral drugs ) to cut down the impact of Hiv/aids on its economic underside line.

In an reference to the UN assembly in June 2001, President Festus Mogae summed up the state of affairs by stating: ” We are threatened with extinction. Peoples are deceasing in chillingly high Numberss. It is a crisis of the first magnitude ” ..

1.2 Justification of Study

Economic research will assist to gauge the effects of HIV/AIDS on the Thailand & A ; Botswana economic systems and the cost effectivity of bar and intervention plans.

It ‘s been cited by many writers that there is a deficiency of research on how Hiv/aids affects the economic growing.

To assist the states come up with financial policies that are tailor made to restrict the effects of Hiv/aids on the economic growing.

To quantify the cost of bar and intervention plan and economic steps such as targeted preparation in accomplishments needed in cardinal industries will restrict the economic effects of HIV/AIDS.

To hold a standard theoretical account to prove the effects of hiv/aids on economic growing.

1.2.1 Research Hypothesis

Economic theory predicts that HIV/AIDS reduces labour supply and productiveness, reduces exports, and increases imports

Hiv/aids has a negative impact on economic growing

1.2.2 Definition of footings

ARV-antiretroviral drugs

HIV-human immunodeficiency virus

AIDS-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

PMTCT-prevention of female parent to child transmittal

GDP growth-gross domestic merchandise growing

2.1 Literature reappraisal

The literature reappraisal on the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS, identifies some of the methodological and econometric restraints in bing surveies, indicates the demand for farther surveies on macroeconomic impact, and examines the policy deductions of the consequences of current research in this country.

Harmonizing to Bollinger & A ; Stover ( 1999 ) , through aggregation of informations from different sectors of the economic system, the economic effects of AIDS will be felt first by persons and their households, so ruffle outwards to houses and concerns and the macro-economy. The paper considered each of these degrees in bend and provided illustrations from Botswana to exemplify these impacts. The attack to methodological analysis was taking informations from surveies done by the UN, NACCA and World Bank, which studied Economic Impact of AIDS on Firms, Economic Impact of AIDS on Agriculture, and Economic Impact of AIDS on Households. The findings from the survey showed that AIDS has the possible to make terrible economic impacts in many African states. It is different from most other diseases because it strikes people in the most productive age groups and is basically 100 per centum fatal. The effects will change harmonizing to the concentration of the AIDS epidemic and the construction of the national economic systems. The two major economic effects are a decrease in the labour supply and increased costs. The brunt of adversity will be placed upon single families. In add-on to the loss of direct income, the decease of an grownup represents a lost input to the family ‘s productive activity. More and more families will be pushed below the poorness line. Another determination is that In Botswana, many families rely on production from subsistence agribusiness. The impact of HIV/AIDS will be felt badly in diminishing the labour supply and therefore production for these families.By 1999, if 35 % of the estimated 13,000 AIDS patients are admitted to infirmaries, it will be $ 4.3 million, and increase the tenancy rate of infirmary beds to111 % . By the twelvemonth 2000, entire outgos by the public wellness system are projected to make P34 million ( US $ 7.4 million ) . The paper may be utile to concern companies, particularly Botswana ; authorities bureaus ; and non-government bureaus by understanding their critical functions in controling the spread of HIV/AIDS. Harmonizing to Jefferis, Kinghorn, Siphambe and Thurlow ( 2008 ) , Household-level impacts may differ from macroeconomic effects. Not all families will be affected by AIDS in the same manner, most evidently depending on whether a family includes an HIV-positive member. The aim of this paper was to mensurate the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growing and poorness in Botswana and gauge how providing intervention can extenuate its effects.The methodological analysis used was demographic and fiscal projections combined with economic simulation theoretical accounts, including a macroeconomic growing theoretical account and macro-microeconomic estimable general equilibrium and micro simulation theoretical account. The findings showed that HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growing and increases family poorness. The impact is now terrible plenty to be impacting the economic system as a whole, and threatens to draw some of the clean population into poorness. Supplying antiretroviral therapy can partially countervail this negative consequence. Treatment increases wellness ‘s portion of authorities outgo merely marginally, because it increases economic growing and because keep backing intervention raises the cost of other wellness services. A decision was drawn that Botswana ‘s intervention plan is appropriate from a macroeconomic position. In a paper about Thailand, Revenga, Masaki, Peerapatanapokin, Tangcharoensathien and Thanprasertsuk ( 2007 ) studied the economic sciences of effectual Aids intervention in Thailand. The rapid nature Thailand has increased its public proviso of antiretroviral therapy ( ART ) has been off the charts,80 000 plus persons on the intervention by the terminal of 2006 made possible through Thailand ‘s inaugural National Access to Antiretroviral plan for Peoples Populating with Hiv/Aids ( NAPHA ) .The writers in the paper demo the cost effectivity, the viability and the future fiscal load of NAPHA on the authorities of Thailand when several different policies come into drama until the twelvemonth 2025.In the methodological analysis a an economic and epidemiological theoretical account of entree to ART was made and this theoretical account was used utilizing economic and epidemiological informations from Thailand and other states. The economic theoretical account took on the Logit specification of demand allotment across multiple intervention manners, and the epidemiological theoretical account is a deterministic difference equation theoretical account fitted to the cumulated informations on HIV incidence in each hazard group. The consequences showed that an estimation under 2005 monetary values NAPHA will salvage life-years at about US $ 736 per life-year saved with first-line drugs entirely and for about US $ 2145 per life-year if second-line drugs are included. Enhancing NAPHA with policies to enroll patients shortly after they are first eligible for ART or to heighten their attachment would raise the cost per life-year saved, but the cost would be little per extra life-year saved, and is hence justifiable. The financial load of a policy including 2nd every bit good as first-line drugs would be significant, lifting to 23 % of the entire wellness budget by 2014, but the writers judge this cost to be low-cost given Thailand ‘s strong overall economic public presentation. The paper estimates that a 90 % decrease in the hereafter cost of second-line therapy by the exercising of Thailand ‘s World Trade Organization authorization to publish compulsory licences would salvage the authorities about US $ 3.2 billion to 2025 and cut down the cost of NAPHA per life-year saved from US $ 2145 to about US $ 940.

Bloom and Mahal ( 1997 ) , went on to inquire, does the AIDS epidemic threaten economic growing? The paper was analysing the claim that the AIDS pandemic will decelerate down economic growing utilizing three well-studied empirical growing equations to command for different factors that are rather perchance correlated with AIDS prevalence that might act upon growing. An EPIMODEL was used as a standard bundle developed by James Chin and S.K Lwanga to gauge cumulative HIV/AIDS instances. They besides tested for simultaneousness in the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growing. The analysis was done across 51 developing states and industrial states for which the followers variables were used, growing rate of GDP per capita to alterations in prevalence of HIV/ AIDS. The HIV/AIDS information was collected from a study published by the United States Bureau of the Census Center for International Research ( U.S Bureau of Census, 1994 ) , WHO, World AIDS ( 1993 ) and Mann, Tarantola and Netter ( 1992 ) .There chief determination was that HIV/AIDS epidemic has had an undistinguished consequence on the growing rate of per capita income, with no grounds of rearward causality. Now harmonizing to Tandon ( 2005 ) , whose documents purpose was to gauge the economic impact of HIV/AIDS in the Asiatic and Pacific part utilizing a standard growing theoretical account. In his theoretical account he added wellness capital as a dependant variable. The information collected was of planetary samples of states over the period 1960-2000, every bit good as utilizing a subsample of Asiatic developing states. The theoretical account used was an extension of the augmented Solow growing theoretical account on the premise that: ( I ) wellness capital is one constituent of human capital act uponing economic growing, and ( two ) HIV/AIDS has an impact on the accretion of human capital and, via this channel, it influences economic growing. The findings showed that by utilizing the planetary sample, consequences indicate a negative impact of increasing HIV/AIDS prevalence on wellness capital and on economic growing. Using the Asia developing states sample for HIV/AIDS prevalence, the theoretical account consequences a peculiarly big inauspicious impact on economic growing in Cambodia and Papua New Guinea. The paper findings show that there is a demand of scheme instantly in the Asia and Pacific part to halt the rise of HIV/AIDS non merely from a wellness point of position but besides from an economic point of position. In 2004, less than 6 % of the estimated 170,000 people in

Asia who need retroviral drugs were acquiring them ( UNAIDS 2004 ) therefore given deficiency of resources for ARV ‘s for illustration, it ‘s better to concentrate on the economic benefits of such intercessions, so that more support can be sourced. Bonnel ( 2000 ) asked the inquiry, does Hiv/aids addition or diminish growing in Africa? The paper used transverse state arrested developments for a period of 7years,1990-1997, they put frontward that hiv/aids has so decreased the growing rate of Africa ‘s gross domestic product per capita income by 0.7 % yearly. African states which are affected by malaria gdp growing was once more lowered by 0.3 % yearly. These decrease is rather a large border as compared with the historical growing of 0.4 % reached in 1990-1997.The paper shows that poorness, inequality, gender inequality, labour mobility and cultural fractionalization have facilitated the rapid spread of Hiv.It sites that what has enabled Hiv/aids to sabotage economic and societal development is the erosion of some of the chief determiners of economic growing, being societal capital, domestic nest eggs and human capital. Because of these factors the Hiv epidemic has evolved from a wellness issue into an economic disease that distorts economic and societal development. Reason being it restricts an of all time increasing portion of the population from playing an active function in adding to economic growing, at the same clip increasing poorness. This breed a destructive rhythm whereby Hiv/Aids reduces economic growing and increases poorness therefore accelerates the prevalence of Hiv/aids. This adds that without early and immediate action, it will be hard to get the better of the cost of inactivity when the hereafter arrives. Harmonizing to A Ananda, Pandava, Nath ( 1999 ) , whose research inquiry was from the point of view of the society of India, what is the entire cost and tantamount one-year cost of HIV infections for the period 1986-1995 ( 10 old ages ) in India? For methodological analysis the paper used analysis was cost-descriptive based on prognostic patterning cohort analysis utilizing human capital attack. A price reduction rate of 5 % was used. The disbursal of HIV infections includes loss of productiveness among HIV patients due to sickness and decease, productiveness loss due to health professionals of AIDS patients, and cost of direction of AIDS patients. To gauge the loss of productiveness due to premature decease attributable to AIDS, a life table attack utilizing two cohorts, one with and one without HIV/AIDS infection at false rates was used. The demographic informations of 1991 nose count were used. The difference in the person-years lived in the two scenarios gave the person-years lost due to HIV/AIDS. This was calculated individually for rural and urban countries. To change over this to pecuniary footings, national per capita income for 1992-93 of Rs. 5529 was used. The information on the yearss of inpatient attention and the cost of direction of AIDS patients were based on presently available informations and ‘expert sentiment ‘ . They analysed, utilizing three different sets of premises for finding, the low, medium and high estimations of the impact of HIV/AIDS in India. Some of the costs were non included in the present analysis: ( I ) usage of antiviral AZT, ( two ) cost of retraining of new work force, ( three ) cost of beef uping of wellness attention system, ( four ) cost of research and development, ( V ) cost of communicating activities, ( six ) cost of bar of perpendicular transmittal, and ( seven ) the intangible cost of hurting and agony to the patients and their households. The consequences showed that entire cumulative figure of HIV-infected individuals in India until 1995 was estimated to be 1.5 million ( low estimation ) , 2.5 million ( average estimation ) and 4.5 million ( high estimation ) . The estimated entire one-year cost ( in billion Sri lanka rupees ) of HIV/AIDS in India under low, medium and high premises was 6.73, 20.16 and 59.19, severally. Cost of intervention of AIDS and loss in productiveness were the two major constituents of the cost. The decision was that the estimated one-year cost of HIV/AIDS appears to be approximately 1 % of the GDP of India if based on high premises. However, as mentioned earlier, all costs of HIV have non been taken into history. Its significance has to be assessed in the context of one-year growing of GDP ( 3.5 % ) and cost of other major diseases in India.

Still on the subject of cost of bar of the pandemic, harmonizing to Johansson ( 2006 ) , who ‘s paper is titled Fiscal deductions of AIDSs in South Africa acknowledges that hiv/aids has a big and negative consequence on the economic system. The documents ‘s chief purpose was to analyze the financial deductions of hiv/aids epidemic in South Africa utilizing a neo-classical growing theoretical account. The paper found that a plan that provides ARVs is to a bigger extent self-financing. The paper found that improvement in dependence ratios and wellness attention cost nest eggs could perchance pay for 144billion rand of a full graduated table epidemiological programme.Because of the altering demographic construction due to the pandemic, an indirect consequence will be seen, it will be more of import than the direct wellness attention cost salvaging consequence. The paper besides came up with revenue enhancement policies. Homesteads will be at will, give money equal to 12 % of GDP in the beginnings due to an optimum ( Ramsey ) financial policy instead than a fixed debt to GDP policy therefore an optimum policy shows an increase in authorities debt during the extremum of the epidemic.

Harmonizing to Bachmann and Booysen ( 2003 ) besides accepts that families are badly affected by hiv/aids but the badness has non been quantified in a controlled cohort survey. The intent of the paper was to quantify the effects of hiv/aids on families and the economic system. The survey was conducted in South Africa. The survey was conducted by comparing families with an HIV septic member and unaffected neighboring families, in one urban country and one rural country. The writers conducted interviews with one chief source in every family, at baseline and six months subsequently. Data was collected from 1913 persons of 404 families with 94 % and 96 % follow up, and so an analysis was done on family and single level.The consequences show that members from affected families as compared to members of unaffected families were more likely to be continuously ill and die largely from infective diseases. The chief beginnings of wellness attention were authorities clinics and infirmaries. The families affected were poorer than the families that are unaffected. It leads to a decision that HIV and AIDSs affects the wealth and wellness of families every bit good as infected persons which therefore makes preexisting poverty worse.

Eliis ( 2007 ) focused his survey on the impact of hiv/aids on assorted companies of assorted sizes in South Africa, every bit good their response to the disease, in a command to swerve off the old surveies which merely looked at measuring workplace responses. An hiv/aids questionnaire was used to roll up informations from companies from 8 different sectors of the economic system. Evidence is shown by the survey on the impact of hiv/aids on the largest sample of big, medium and little companies in South Africa presently. The consequences of the study show that the responses of the employer are really much linked to company size and most if non all of big and medium companies indicated that they do hold a hiv/aids policy up and running but in contrast little companies have merely done a little part in an action against hiv/aids.

Dixon, McDonald and Roberts ( 2002 ) site that the macroeconomic effects of hiv/aids in the African continent are important, and besides authorities policies for controling the epidemic are really controvesial.A contention of note is whether expensive ARV drugs must be ever given to economically productive people. To transport out the research the writers relied on economic theory to somehow calculate the hereafter of economic systems plagued with of all time increasing morbidity and mortality. Past Empirical surveies which have tried to quantify the macroeconomic effects of hiv/aids were reviewed. The empirical surveies were sourced from Medline, Embase, UNAIDS, WorldBank, WHO to call a few and research workers in the field were contacted and besides a secondary bibliographical hunt of all surveies was done. To the writers dismay it was found out at that place have merely been a few surveies on the deductions of hiv/aids on the macroeconomy and even fewer economic ratings on the monetary value ticket of programmes to control Hiv/aids. The writers discovered that Hiv/aids reduced labour productiveness because of long unwellness of workers, an illustration is that as a consequence of this, one-year costs of less productiveness and unwellness cost Ugandan railroad Corporation $ 300 a worker.Thus authoritiess are pressured to increase their disbursement to control the increasing hiv/aids prevelance and in the long term create possible for financial crises.Another consequence was reduced exports and increased imports, as there is lower domestic productiveness reduces possible exports, at the same clip health care goods imports may rise.When it comes to quantifying the effects the autors found that most surveies use a arrested development analysis, largely utilizing GDP per capita as the dependant variable, and the net consequence on it is largely negative and significant.The theoretical accounts do demo that the economic impact of hiv/aids but their based on simpilified economic relationships which assume people can alter occupations easilybut this premise is will unluckily underestimamte the true effects on production.The writers site that the value of the economic theoretical accounts is in utilizing the consequences to orient policies for single states to run into the demands of their several economic systems, this is the most of import measure in cut downing the effects of hiv/aids on the macro economic system.

Contributions from givers for bar programmes have doubled between 2002 and 2004 to $ 6 billion asset. The addition in contributions contradicts or instead disguises the volatile nature of parts to HIV/AIDS plans within the sub-Saharan states. Lewis ( 2005 ) paper surveies the impacts of sudden rush HIV/AIDS contributions on the stableness of macro economic system, wellness of the financial environment and the growing of wellness establishments. The macroeconomic effects are ill-defined, at the same clip they are depended on the entire sum of flows of assistance, embracing the HIV/AIDs assistance, the foreign exchange influxs direction, and the current policies of disbursement. The top down HIV/AIDS plans including support which is set aside have the potency to gnaw the foundations of the really mechanisms that have to transport frontward the long term HIV/AIDS bar and intervention docket for each state. The Health systems of most badly AIDS affected are at a province of breakability, and jobs faced by authoritiess and a productiveness that is uneven, increase the challenges. Support is needed by wellness establishments and to work hard to endeavor to do them stronger for them to go better in the war against HIV/AIDS. Even though the committed contributions are needed beyond uncertainty, solutions to the province of uncertainness will necessitate originative options to guarantee the flow of financess, pull off the economic deductions and guarantee effectual service bringing. Harmonizing to Morfit ( 2010 ) there is another attack to the effects of giver support to Hiv/aids plans. The writer states that there is an of all time increasing concern that the addition in response towards the epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa is truly aching the human development in the part in a big graduated table. The intent of the survey was to understand the consequence of givers stressing Hiv/aids on human development attempts more loosely. The survey was based in Malawi, because in the last two decennaries Malawi ‘s NGO sector has grown to merely prefer hiv/aids and it has received big sums of giver support throughout the old ages. Hiv/aids now holds precedency and prestigiousness that other development sectors are deprived. Even though done with good purposes, hiv/aids has been a hinderance in efforts to screen out non-hiv/aids development sectors. Data was collected by following fluctuations in foreign donor support tendencies and tendencies in NGO sector activity and to understand the ground why hiv/aids was so august, NGO staff were interviewed. The consequences showed that even with the addition of Aids NGOs, their effectivity on forestalling the addition of the epidemic were ill-defined, what was found was that they have an consequence on the institutional environment of the population of NGOs which in bend has effects when it comes to other ignored development issues. The addition of pecuniary resources for the epidemic has had a instead equivocal impact on cut downing the prevalence of hiv/aids. With more money available for hiv/aids this has caused a rush in the volume of hiv/aids NGOs and raised their position above other development sectors NGOs. Now hiv/aids work has become the norm when you are an NGO.Hiv/aids NGOs work hold more clout now than work by other development NGOs who focus on other sectors. Now at this minute in clip hiv/aids in the African subcontinent is at hazard to go a shallow simplistic manner of undertaking the continents human development.

Addressing the inquiry: What is the consequence of the monolithic AIDS crisis in sub-Saharan Africa on economic growing? Corrigana, Glommb, Mendezc ( 2005 ) , Answers to this inquiry affair for two grounds: First, even moderate growing effects can hold a ample impact on the public assistance of future coevalss. Second, neither is at that place any remedy, nor is at that place any opportunity of commanding the epidemic in the close hereafter. As this is an empirical survey it suggests that in contrast, many of the theoretical parts that concentrate on the possible long tally ( future ) effects predict that the AIDS crisis will hold a much larger impact. For methodological analysis the paper used a simple theoretical account which was regressed. The consequences showed that it confirms anterior findings from dynamic general equilibrium theoretical accounts and simulation exercisings that the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic can be rather big. This paper besides shows, more polemically from a policy point of view, that public policies such as altering subsidies for AIDS related medical attention have comparatively little growing effects. The paper besides leaves a research spread in that the writers say would be interesting to analyze a theoretical account which heterogenous person since there is some grounds that AIDS incidence varies by socioeconomic category because in their paper they studied merely antique ante homogenous persons. Azomahou, Boucekkine and Diene ( 2008 ) used a different theoretical account in their paper. They used a simple general equilibrium theoretical account a La Solow made to demo the impact of AIDS on a state ‘s economic growing. They extended a benchmark theoretical account in different waies due to a paper by Cuddington and Hancock ( 1994 ) .It pointed out that there is a steep diminution in life anticipation forms which are clearly shown in the drawn-out theoretical account through a generic Ben-Porath system. Health outgos of Aids related diseases were besides used. By utilizing optimum prediction methods, the theoretical account was used with informations from South Africa. The consequences showed that even though a short term survey may non demo any dramatic growing consequence, but the medium to hanker run impact can be really devastating.Especially, the dramatic tendencies in mortality and life anticipation induced by Aids at the minute are seen to hold a possible to be at least double more damaging for gdp growing per capita in the period 2020-2030 as compared to 2000-2010. Deborah Johnston ( 2008 ) argues that economic experts have a difficult clip to seeking to understand the macroeconomic impact of Hiv/aids. All they have done is concept macro theoretical accounts that use simple illustrations of the workings of an economic system and so present channels in which Hiv/aids will hold an consequence.These theoretical accounts have a immense influence on Hiv/aids policies worldwide, but they do hold their critics. The critic in the paper is focused on the simplifications in the building of the economic system that seem to be misleading. By utilizing illustrations of micro surveies of sub-Saharan Africa, the paper argues that there are more of import simplified theoretical accounts that are more effectual. Whereas the mis-guiding theoretical accounts show a series of unconnected mistakes in the mold procedure, the theoretical accounts show gender prejudice which means that many of the impacts of greater female mortality and morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa are ignored. The decision and the recommendation was that, economic experts should utilize Gender-aware mold because it ‘s really of import to better the surveies on the aggregative impact of Hiv/aids both in Africa and the universe.

In decision

3.1Methodology

3.1.2 Introduction

Features of a good arrested development theoretical account

Regression line must be fitted to informations strongly.

Most of the independent variables should be important to explicate dependent variable

Independent variables should be jointly important to act upon or explicate dependent variable.

No consecutive or auto-correlation

The discrepancy of the residuary should be changeless

The residuary should be usually distributed

The dependant variable is a stable one.

3.2.1 Theoretical model

hiv prevalence rate 15-49yrs

AIDS deceases in grownups and kids

GDP growing

life anticipation old ages

3.2.2 Hypothesis development

H0: HIV/AIDS does non hold an consequence on economic growing

H1: HIV/AIDS does hold an consequence on economic growing

3.3.1 Variables Specification

GDP growth-dependent

I?1- hiv prevalence rate 15-49yrs-independent

I?2-life anticipation years-independent

I?3-AIDS deceases in grownups and kids -independent

HIV/AIDS prevalence rate 15-49yrs

The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in selected populations refers to the per centum of people tested in each group who were found to be infected with HIV.

Life anticipation old ages

The likely figure of old ages a individual will populate after a given age, as determined by mortality in a specific geographic country.

AIDS deceases in grownups and kids

An estimation of the figure of grownups and kids who died of AIDS during a given calendar twelvemonth.

GDP growing

Economic growing is the addition in value of the goods and services produced by an economic system.

3.3.2Model Specification

GDP growth=I±+I?1hiv prevalence rate 15-49yrs+I?2life anticipation old ages + I?3AIDS deceases in grownups and kids +?µ

3.4.1 Data Collection

I will utilize annually informations from 1990 to 2007.Data will be from Botswana and Thailand. It will be collected from World Bank, UNAIDS, WHO.

3.4.2Methods of Analysis

OLS By making a arrested development with panel informations.

Unit root trial A unit root trial trials whether a clip series variable is non-stationary utilizing an autoregressive theoretical account. A well-known trial that is valid in big samples is the augmented Dickey-Fuller trial. Another trial is the Phillips-Perron trial. These trials use the being of a unit root as the void hypothesis.

Correlation trial Trial for correlativity among the independent against the dependent variable.

Trial for significance of the variables

Causality The trial for Granger causality plants by first making a arrested development of I”Y on lagged values of I”Y. ( Here I”Y is the first difference of the variable Y – that is, Y minus its one-period-prior value. The arrested developments are performed in footings of I”Y instead than Y if Y is non stationary but I”Y is. ) Once the set of important lagged values for I”Y is found ( via t-statistics or p-values ) , the arrested development is augmented with lagged degrees of I”X. Any peculiar lagged value of I”X is retained in the arrested development if ( 1 ) it is important harmonizing to a t-test, and ( 2 ) it and the other lagged values of I”X jointly add explanatory power to the theoretical account harmonizing to an F-test. Then the void hypothesis of no Granger causality is non rejected if and merely if no lagged values of I”X have been retained.

As a research worker I am frequently looking for a clear narrative, such as Ten Granger-causes Y but non the other manner around. In pattern, nevertheless, it may be found that neither variable Granger-causes the other, or that each of the two variables Granger-causes the other.

Simultaneity Testing for simultaneousness in the relationship between AIDS prevalence, life anticipation, AIDS deceases in grownups and kids and economic growing. Simultaneity occurs when there is a feedback relationship between one or more of the independent variables and the dependant variable. Simultaneity causes the OLS-estimated coefficients and standard mistakes to be biased. The most common trial for simultaneousness is the Hausman trial.

3.5.1 Decision