Southeast Europe is a comparatively new geopolitical indication of the Balkan provinces, a part often regarded by western states as a heterogenous set of states with their ain cultural particulars, kineticss, and an interrelated and complex modern history. The states that form this portion of Europe are Albania, Bosnia & A ; Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, FYROMacedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. With a combined population of more than 57 million people ( i.e. , 57A 801A 245 ) , an country of 550,000A km2, and a favourable geographical location ( i.e. , the Black Sea to the E, the Adriatic Sea to the West and the Mediterranean Sea to the South ) , the SEE part plays an of import function to European states ‘ as a “ span ” to Africa, Middle East and Asia.
Many political and/or economical alterations have taken topographic point throughout the past decennary in the Southeast European Region. After several old ages of intensive dialogues, in the beginning of 2007 Bulgaria and Romania became full right members of the European Union and now are harvesting the benefits of the fiscal aid of the other EU members towards societal and economical integrating. Another set of states, viz. Croatia and Macedonia, were accepted as campaigners for European Union rank in 2005, and are now in a procedure of fall ining the EU. More late, in the spring of 2009, Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania became members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ) , while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia and Montenegro started dialogues with the European Union over the Stabilisation and Accession Agreements. Nevertheless, the dialogues with the latter have stopped due to the deficiency of co-operation with the International Criminal Tribune for the Former Yugoslavia.
Although diverse in nature, the states in the SEE part can be classified into several subgroups. First, based on a recent survey by Ernst & A ; Young, the Southeast European states can be classified into three groups depending on their inward FDI. For the period 2004-2008, Romania has been the taking state with respects to foreign capital influxs, pulling about half of all the FDI undertakings in the part. The 2nd group, besides called “ followings ” , is comprised of Bulgaria with 23 % of the FDI undertakings, followed by Serbia with 13 % and Croatia with 5 % . In the 3rd subgroup, called “ emerging ” the states are Bosnia & A ; Herzegovina with 4 % of the FDI, FYRO Macedonia with 3 % , Moldova with 1 % , Albania with 1 % , Montenegro with no FDI Projects, and eventually Kosovo where the information is non available.
While one manner to group the states in the SEE Region is by foreign capital influxs, another manner is by their EU rank position. Even though all states have expressed willingness to go portion of the European Union, their position at present is different. Bulgaria and Romania are already EU members, whereas Croatia and Macedonia are in the dialogue phase of their credence. Still 3rd set of states, viz. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo and Montenegro have a long manner to travel to carry through all the conditions to go full right European members.
In decision, although all the states in the part have been blessed with different history ( e.g. , Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia & A ; Herzegovina and Kosovo have witnessed passages in their political and economical systems, frequently followed by disruptive war clip for independency ) , they all strive for a common hereafter – going a portion of the European community, and profiting from the one democratic European market, with equal rights and chances for the hereafter. [ ? ? ? ? ]
2. The planetary fiscal and economic crisis of 2007
2.1. The planetary fiscal and economic crisis of 2007 – worldwide effects
The planetary fiscal crisis of 2007, seen by many celebrated economic experts around the universe as the worst 1 since the Great Depression ( 1929-1933 ) , has surely changed the supports of about everyone in one manner or another. After a period of economic roar that lasted more than 4 old ages, the planetary fiscal system took a hit in 2007 by the prostration of the sub-prime mortgage market in the United States, and the Domino consequence of the lodging roar in other industrialised economic systems around the universe. As a effect stock markets in both developed and developing states tumbled ( e.g. , the fiscal crisis so far has caused loss of more than $ 14,5 trillion of market capitalisation ) , followed by the prostration of many big fiscal establishments and private concerns. The result of all this so far this has been fiscal instability and uncertainness in many industrialised sectors of the economic system, surging trade good and nutrient monetary values, currency fluctuations, alteration in pecuniary policies in states around the universe, and last, but non rent, a human rights crisis.
The effects of the planetary fiscal crisis begun to look in the 2nd half of 2007 and more vividly during the first few months of 2008. Developed states were the 1s most affected due to their tight integrating with the planetary economic system and demand. After turning by more than 3.9 % in 2007, universe GDP abated to 1.7 % in 2008 and contracted by -2.2 % in 2009 ( see Table 1 ) . FDI undertakings fell by about 23 per cent in 2009, after turning by 39.1 per cent and 15.1 per cent in 2007 and 2008 severally. World trade were besides affected – after turning by 5.2 per cent in 2007 and 2,9 per cent in 2008, exports worldwide fell by -18.0 per cent in 2009, while imports tumbled even more -20.0 per cent in 2009 entirely.
Table 1.Real Outgo Growth in the period 2007 – 2011
Real GDP Growth at market monetary values
Beginning: World Bank
The fiscal crisis has had a direct effect on about every facet of the economic system. Deeply worried about their fiscal stableness and liquidness, fiscal establishments around the universe shored up militias and therefore decreased entree to recognition, or in other cases ceased loaning to concerns and persons. This deficit of capital resulted in higher costs of adoption, taking to diminish in concern activity and finally 1000000s of discharged workers in both developed and developing states. Harmonizing to the International Labor Organization ( ILO ) , for the period 2007-2009 the figure of unemployed workers increased by 34 million and reached the astonishing 212 million in the terminal of 2009, labeling the current crisis as “ planetary occupation crisis ” .
On a national degree, the planetary fiscal crisis has affected many national fiscal systems. For case, states such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Iceland, Romania, Ukraine, Serbia, and the Baltic States have been driven to seek fiscal aid from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the European Union and even the World Bank due to their dependance consumer disbursement ( both domestic and international ) , exports and foreign capital. Furthermore, states such as Portugal and Greece are now holding problems with their budget shortages due to take down revenue enhancement grosss and increased authorities outgos. The concerns of their EU member neighbours are that those states may shortly necessitate to be rescued in instance they default on their national debt.
Although the fiscal crisis of 2007 has brought a smattering of negative effects on many establishments, companies and persons, it is deserving adverting one positive consequence of it. Prior to the crisis, the USA and peculiarly Wall Street was the world`s most appropriate topographic point of puting money and harvesting immense net incomes in merely a few old ages clip. Now, with most people believing that the fiscal crisis originated entirely due to the greed of Wall Street, this topographic point means bankruptcy, high hazard and uncertainness. In other words, the crisis is taking the terminal of the USA as the exclusive domination of capital influxs. States such as China, India, Brazil and parts from Europe, Asia and Latin America are bit by bit going hubs of immense investings, which in bend will convey approximately more stableness to the universe fiscal system. In other words, the old “ universe investing map ” has changed to a wholly new one with developing economic systems playing a chief function. These alleged “ rising investing hubs ” are now offering more chances and warrants to foreign investors than US.
2.2. The planetary fiscal crisis and the Southeast European Region
Prior to the crisis, this set of states had an mean growing rate of more than 6 % and their domestic economic systems were dining. In 2007 entirely, GDP growing for the part peaked at 6.8 % and was projected to lift even more for 2008 ( see Table 2 ) ; unemployment rates reached its lowest rates for the past 15 old ages and GDP per capita amounted to $ 5,300[ 1 ]; rising prices was within the recognized degrees of 2-4 per cent ( see Table 3 ) ; Foreign Direct Investment ( FDI ) was fluxing into the part and counties were able to borrow cheaply due to favourable recognition evaluation by evaluation bureaus.
Table 2. Growth in existent GDP for the SEE Region in the period 2006 – 2011
Growth in Real GDP
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Beginning: World Bank, IMF, World Economic Outlook
Table 3. CPI Inflation for the SEE Region in the period 2006-2010
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2,9Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
Similarly the developed universe, the planetary fiscal crisis of 2007 has brought approximately many and of import effects to the developing states of the Southeast Europe Region. However, the initial impact and the strength of the crisis differed well. Give the fact that SEE states weren`t tightly integrated with the universe economic system and trade, the part experienced a slowdown of approximately a twelvemonth before experiencing the negative effects of the crisis, which happened in the last one-fourth of 2008 and more vividly in the beginning of 2009 ( See Graph 1 below ) . After a lessening in foreign exports and FDI influxs, the crisis hit the industrial and services sector. Credit loaning by local Bankss dried up, production end product declined which in bend resulted in the layoff of many workers and finally with the lessening of consumer disbursement and deterioration of the economic state of affairs. In the undermentioned portion of the study, we explain in item how the fiscal crisis of 2007 affected the Southeasterly European states and what sort of steps they took to undertake the negative effects of it.
Graph 1. Growth in existent GDP in Southeast Europe 2006 – 2011
Beginning: BC Serdon
Compared to the remainder of the SEE states, the planetary fiscal crisis of 2007 has had less effects on Albania`s economic system so far due to its less-advanced banking sector and limited exposure to foreign export and FDI influxs. Harmonizing to estimations of the World Bank, the economic system grew by 6.5 per cent in 2008, and 2.2 per cent in 2009, while the other SEE states contracted by an norm of -3.7 per cent ( see Table 2 above ) . As a consequence of increased governmental disbursement in substructure undertakings and concern activity in the telecom and services sectors, the state has been able to “ endure the worst of the storm ” . Exports decreased by 17 per cent in 2008, while imports by less than 2 per cent. Furthermore, the rising prices varied within 2-4 per cent, with merely 1.7 per cent in 2009. The governmental response to the crsis was a careful pecuniary policy implemented and flexible exchange rates which allowed the state to maintain international militias stable.
2.2.2. Bosnia and Herzegovina
After a twosome of old ages of healthy growing rates, the country`s economic system felt the first negative effects of the planetary fiscal crisis in the last one-fourth of 2008, and more vividly in the first half of 2009. After turning by 6.9 per cent, 6.8 per cent and 5.5 per cent in 2006, 2007 and 2008 severally, the economic system contracted by -3.0 per centum in 2009 ( see Table 2 above ) . The chief grounds for that crisp diminution were three. First, demand for goods and services by the European Union slowed well, which instantly had a negative consequence on foreign exports. Second, Bankss tightened recognition loaning so as to procure liquidness. Third, FDI inflows to the state badly contracted therefore impacting businesses` grosss. The result of all this has been decrease in consumer disbursement and steady lifting unemployment since the beginning of 2009.
In July 2009, faced by major financial jobs and weak domestic demand, the state signed an understanding for a three-year exigency loan by the IMF for the sum of $ 1.57 billion. Since so the economic system has stabilized, with rising prices diminishing to merely 0.9 per cent in 2009, after top outing at 7.4 per cent in 2008.
For the period 2006-2008, the Bulgarian economic system experienced steady economic growing by an norm of 6.1 per cent due to strong foreign demand ( i.e. , chiefly from the US and Western Europe ) and domestic demand, big influxs of Foreign Direct Investment and easy recognition loaning by local Bankss. However, the effects of the planetary economic crisis were first felt in the terminal of 2008 and more vividly in the first half of 2009 ( see Table 2 above ) . The lag in foreign capital influxs and investing disbursement led to worsen in exports. The service sector felt a crisp diminution, followed by a diminution in industrial end product, building and touristry. Due to take down domestic demand and bead in the universe monetary values of nutrient and trade good imports rising prices rate fell to 2.7 per cent in 2009 after lifting to 12.0 in 2008.
At present, the state is seeking to better revenue enhancement conformity and lower its governmental disbursement so as to equilibrate the budget for 2009 and 2010.
Following to Bulgaria and Romania, Croatia was one of the states that were hit the most by the planetary fiscal crisis due to its heavy trust on foreign capital influxs and foreign investings. After turning by 4.7 per cent in 2006, 5.4 per cent in 2007 and a modest 2.3 per cent in 2008, the existent GDP fell by about 5 per cent in 2009 ( see Table 2 above ) . Exports and building services fell aggressively ( i.e. , about 20 per cent ) , followed by a diminution of 10.2 per centum in industrial production, consumer disbursement, less recognition loaning by Bankss and lifting unemployment.
In response to the weak economic activity, the Croatian governments voted for cuts in public disbursement, provided fiscal support for many little and moderate-sized endeavors ( SMEs ) every bit good as for companies in the touristry sector. Other governmental steps included: the rise of a‚¬750 million in the Eurobond market in May 2009, maintaining tightly exchange rate policy and rising prices rate within 2-4 per cent, and exciting recognition loaning by local Bankss.
2.2.5. Macedonia, FYR
The planetary fiscal crisis hit the Macedonian economic system in the 4th one-fourth of 2008. Prior to it, the state enjoyed old ages of strong economic growing and prosperity. In 2006 existent GDP grew by 4.0 per cent, followed by 5.9 per cent in 2007 and 5.0 per cent in 2008. ( see Table 2 above ) The negative effects were first felt in the metal and fabric sectors with industrial production worsening by 11 per cent. Foreign direct investing fell by about half, exports to the US and Western European states declined well, and unemployment reached 30 % in 2009.
To undertake the crisis, the authorities approved a stimulus bundle, which was aimed to supply support to the local economic system in several ways – investment in several big substructure undertakings in energy, instruction, conveyance and environment ; decrease of some import duties and take downing corporate revenue enhancement. However, in June 2009, the authorities had to cut public disbursement with about 9 per cent so as to remain with the jutting budget shortage of 2.8 per cent of GDP for the twelvemonth 2009.
2.2.6. Crna gora
Prior to the fiscal crisis, the economic system experienced strong enlargement with existent GDP turning by an norm of about 9 per cent. Rapid recognition growing was in topographic point, the service sector ( i.e. , touristry and finance ) was booming, and legion FDI undertakings were lending to strong domestic demand. Nevertheless, in the last one-fourth of 2008 and during the first two quarters of 2009 the crisis hit the economic system with a full blown. Industrial production dropped by more than 20 per cent, recognition growing plunged to 3 per cent y-t-y, compared to 95 per cent in 2008, capital influxs about froze.
Montenegro responded to the crisis in two ways. First, at the terminal of 2008 the authorities the governments voted and approved a‚¬350 million stimulation bundle. The money was allocated as follows: introducing subsidies to SMEs and families with respects to their electricity payments, addition in governmental disbursement and decrease of fees to local concerns. Second, a warrant of a‚¬150 million was introduced to local Bankss in order to increase liquidness and recognition loaning to little and average endeavors ( SMEs ) .
The economic activity in Romania started to lessen in the first one-fourth of 2009 with skiding into a crisp recession in the 2nd and 3rd one-fourth. In the period 2006-2008, the economic system grew by an norm of 7.1 per cent, while plumping by -7.8 per cent in 2009 ( see Table 2 above ) . Due to the country`s heavy trust on foreign export and FDI influxs, the planetary fiscal crisis affected about every facet of its economic system. Industrial production decreased by about 20 % , exports to EU states fell by more than 20 per cent ; growing in recognition loaning slowed therefore badly impacting extremely leveraged sectors such as existent estate and building. As a effect of all this, many little and moderate-sized endeavors experient troubles financing their concerns and were forced to put off workers.
To beef up its economic system, in the beginning of 2009 the Rumanian authorities voted for a a‚¬13 billion stimulus bundle, which allocated about a‚¬10.2 billion ( or 7 % of GDP ) to be spend on substructure investing. Though, this was non adequate and in May 2009 the state signed a biennial stabilisation understanding with the IMF for the sum of $ 17.1 billion. The money were agreed to be spend in several ways: ( 1 ) beef uping financial policy and bettering long-run financial stableness ; ( 2 ) beef uping the fiscal sector and softening the effects of the bead in inward FDI and ( 3 ) endorsing up local Bankss with liquidness.
Soon, the Romania authorities is seeking to implement all the above programs. If there is a demand of more funding, the European Union, the World Bank, the EBRD and the European Investment Bank ( EIB ) have expressed willingness to assist.
Similarly most of the Southeast European states, Serbia felt the first negative effects of the planetary crisis in the first few months of 2009. After turning by a healthy 5.2 per cent in 2006, 6.9 per cent in 2007 and 5.5 per cent in 2008, the economic system plunged by about 4 per cent in 2009 ( see Table 2 above ) . Industrial end product contracted by more than 17 per cent y-o-y footing, rising prices rose to 9.9 per cent, recognition loaning by local Bankss slowed well.
In the beginning of 2009 the National Bank of Serbia ( NBS ) had to step in and step in so as to forestall the crisp depreciation of the national currency that was taking topographic point at that clip. In add-on, to fasten its financial stance, limit the current shortage below 2 per cent of the GDP and excite the economic system, the Serbian authorities sought the aid of the IMF – in January 2009 and May 2009 by subscribing understandings for $ 0.5 billion and $ 4.0 billion loan severally. The authorities poured more than $ 1.5 billion into the economic system to excite domestic production and foreign export by bettering liquidness. At present, the authorities is seting attempts in cut downing disbursement and implementing much needed reforms in health care, educational and pension system.
3. Post-crisis tendencies and outlooks
Since the beginning of the twelvemonth, the gait of economic contraction in most of the SEE states has slowed well. Harmonizing to estimations of the World Bank and IMF, Bulgaria and Montenegro will be the lone states with negative GDP growing in 2010 – -2.0 and -2.0 severally, while the remainder of the SEE states will be headed towards positive growing ( see Table 2 above ) . Albania will take the economic recovery with its economic system growth by 3.0 per cent in 2010, followed by FYROMacedonia with 1.9 per cent, Serbia – 1.5 per cent, Croatia – 1.1 per cent, Bosnia and Herzegovina – 0.5 per cent, and Romania by 0.5 per cent. Exports to Western European states are supplying support to that projection by demoing acceleration, and appetency for hazard by both fiscal and private establishments is returning.
Although growing in existent GDP for the SEE part is projected to lift by an norm of 0.3 % in 2010, several jobs remain unresolved. First, even though positive in most states, GDP growing rates will stay below their possible. Private recognition is still weak and difficult to obtain by companies due to the reluctance of local Bankss to impart to concerns. Second, high volumes of non-performing loans, low influxs of FDI and weak public fundss impede strong investing growing in many states, which may further increase fiscal troubles for Bankss in the part and finally ensue in a double-dip recession. Finally, unemployment throughout the part is still on the rise. Given the fact that this is a lagging index, it`s expected to be increase in the approaching months. Harmonizing to the International Labor Organization ( ILO ) , one time concern activity throughout the part has returned to its normal degrees, so we can anticipate a gradual turnaround in the labour market. This may go on in the 2nd half of 2010 the earliest and more likely in the beginning of 2011.
In decision, as Marek Belka, Director of the IMF ‘s European Department, sums up “ aˆ¦Southeast European states will retrieve from the planetary economic crisis at changing velocities during 2010aˆ¦ ” Undertaking the effects of the crisis will necessitate those states to organize their policy enterprises, to demand for uninterrupted international support by EU members, the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) , the European Fund for Southeast Europe ( EFSE ) , EBRD, and World Bank, and bit by bit decrease their dependence on foreign recognition and exports in foreign markets. They will besides necessitate to turn to the current jobs resulted from the injection of big sums of money into their economic systems and therefore roll uping great sum of national debt. Now they have to bit by bit switch their mentality to get down refunding it by increasing involvement rates and cut downing adoption, increasing revenue enhancements for the wealthiest categories of the economic system, and last, but non least – diminishing governmental disbursement.